# #796 v4 organic ub>=8 rule, path replay (analyst1, 28 Oct)
Rule: v4:native unhooked first pool, uniq_buyers in first ~50 s >=8, cap_est<=300k; enter at first swap t_rel>=50 (price +5% slip, 2% fee); exit TP/SL on swap path to +30 min (no sell-liquidity/rug model).
n=427 pools, 41 reach 1M (9.6%). Paths exist for 278 pools, ALL 41 runners included -> 149 pathless pools are non-runners (survivor bias on path set).
Path-set means: tp3/sl.7 1.60; tp5/sl.6 1.89; tp10/sl.5 2.09; hold 2.3.
Bias-adjusted (149 pathless filled at 0.6-0.9x): tp3/sl.7 1.25-1.35; tp5/sl.6 1.44-1.54; tp10/sl.5 1.57-1.67. Median per trade ~1.1-1.2, win ~55%; mean carried by runners (41).
Caveat: window is ~50 s, entry at ~50 s needs an on-chain buy within seconds; outside-wallet sellability and pulls not modelled (rug_gate needed). ~427 pools / period => check days to get trades/day.
Verdict: positive after bias adjustment; send to paper with tp5/sl.6 (or trail), needs forward n>=15.