# #823 v3 thin pools, 300s cap 100k-1.5M (analyst2, 30 Oct 2026)
Data: fw/pp-live-paths-all.csv (live radar, born 26-29 Oct; 29 Oct partial). v3 = 721 pools; first cap<5k = 132.
- 9 of 132 (6.8%) had cap_5m in 100k-1.5M (5 on 28 Oct, 4 on 29 Oct; none 26-27 Oct).
- For those 9: max_cap_life / cap_5m = mean 30.3, median 23, ex top 3 mean 15.2, min 6.1. Every one went 6x+ after the 300s mark.
- NOT a tradable mean: it is peak-based (no exit path, no pull/rug, no slippage), n=9, 2 days, and the radar file carries survivors (a pool that rugs before 300s has no cap_5m in band). The all-1.0 floor (min 6x) says the file is selected on later success, not a clean sample.
- Denominator is the real signal: ~7% of thin v3 reach the band at 300s, so the band gate costs ~93% of thin wakers' flow; a 300k-ride only has value if the path after 300s is known (drawdown, pull). Radar does not store it.
## Verdict
Cannot replay honestly. Need pre-/post-300s price+liquidity-remove tape for ALL v3 thin pools (not only those that crossed), 14-29 Oct, i.e. the chain tape b088-b100 (open #4304/#4308/#4319). Until then #823 stays idea/parked; #819 forward paper is the only test. No new paper slot requested.