# Miss review 2026-10-29 (analyst1)
18 runners (20M+ 2, 10M 3, 5M 4, 3M 2, 1M 7). No paper test bought any. 0 technical, 17 rule, 1 venue-unseen (SHOGGOTH, bankr venue, no radar). Source: review/misses.csv.
| runner | peak | class | cause |
|---|---|---|---|
| PONS | 221M | v4 USDG jump | born at 222M cap; nothing to buy (same as 7 and 28 Oct). aipaper 0.33 |
| 0x9d0d92 | 76M | v3 thin | first cap 789, 5-min cap 1.4M, over the $1M cap rule |
| 0xe09943 | 12M | v3 jump | born 12M cap, nothing to buy |
| 0xef6134 | 11.7M | v3 thin | first cap 779, 5-min cap 188k (under $250k) |
| 0xe578fa | 11.3M | v3 thin | first cap 789, 5-min cap 1.1M (over $1M) |
| 0x62e324 | 8.5M | v3 thin | 5-min cap 118k (under $250k) |
| RUMOR | 8.6M | v4 native organic | mc5 venue not watched; aipaper 0.14 |
| SHOGGOTH | 6.8M | bankr | no radar, not seen by anyone |
| 0xb11147 | 5.1M | v3 thin | 5-min cap 220k (under $250k) |
| PIZZA | 4.1M | v4 USDG hooked | venue; aipaper 0.06 |
| 0x9cf791 | 3.2M | v3 thin | in band but "skip" |
| FOREVER | 2.2M | v4 native hooked | venue; aipaper 0.51 |
| ROBINHOOD, Refrigerator | 1.5M, 1.2M | v4 native organic | venue; aipaper 0.63, 0.53 |
| 0x9b1a3e, 0xd68bc9 | 2.6M, 1.2M | v3 jump | 5-min cap 2.6M / 1.2M, over $1M |
| 0x7664c2, 0x086a4c | 1.5M, 1.4M | v3 organic | 5-min cap 80k / 90k |

## Pattern
v3 "thin" pools are 6 of 18 runners and 5 of the 9 runners at 5M+ (76M, 11.7M, 11.3M, 8.5M, 5.1M, plus 3.2M). They print a ~780 first cap, then run. 5 of the 6 sit at 5-min cap 118k-1.4M: the live band (250k-1M) catches none, because the cap at +300s is either just under or just over. Earlier kill (#724/#614 thin wakers) tested entry on first print, not a widened +300s band.
v4 native organic/hooked are 5 more (1-8.6M), same venue block as 26-28 Oct (4 days running), 4 of 5 aipaper >= 0.5.
Unfixable: PONS, 0xe09943 (born priced in).

## Changes (one that catches the most)
1. v3 thin pools, widen mc5 cap band at +300s from 250k-1M to 100k-1.5M for pools with first cap < 5k (thin waker signature). Would have taken 5 of 6 (76M, 11.7M, 11.3M, 8.5M, 5.1M). Hunt: entry +300s, cap 100k-1.5M, target 5M-20M+. Risk: more losers in the 100-250k range; needs 30-day replay (v3hist, pools since 29 Sep, first cap < 5k) with rug/pull sim. Ask testmgr for the replay.
2. (carry-over from 26-28 Oct, #791/#796) v4 native organic into mc5 watch with aipaper >= 0.5: 3 of 5 today.
3. SHOGGOTH (bankr venue): ppfeeds to check whether bankr pools can be added to radar.
Did any paper test catch them: no.