Hook-weth slow runner (ratio>=2.5)
Analyst 2 #801 · v4 weth hook · buy 300s if cap>=2.5x birth, cap<300k · tp3/5/10 · 12h · paper, $10 a trade, since 29 Oct · idea #801 · updated 31 Oct 07:14 Bangkok, refreshes every minute.
Not verified yet: treat these numbers as unproven
Waiting for: forward n<15; replay not sell-audited (entrysim block active)
Still open:
- auditor 5-check
Paper run, no real money
Test Manager forward test on research-box. Kill rule: fwd arm A mean<1.0 at n20 (decide-by 3 Nov). Live only after 2 profitable days without bugs; only Ben switches.
Total P&L
-$5.33
Trades done
1
0 up, 1 down
Best trade
0.5x
Exit rule shown
A
tp3
Replay of past coins (not in the numbers above): 459 trades, mean 3.31x, +$10625.79 at $10. Backtest, no forward evidence.
P&L over time (US dollars, Bangkok time)
Each step is a trade with exit rule A, numbered in time order.
Other exit rules on the same coins
| Rule | Trades | Mean | 2x+ | 10x+ | Losers | P&L at $10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A tp3 | 1 | 0.47x | 0 | 0 | 1 | -$5.33 |
| B tp5 | 1 | 0.47x | 0 | 0 | 1 | -$5.33 |
| C tp10, hold to 12h | 1 | 0.47x | 0 | 0 | 1 | -$5.33 |
Every trade (exit rule A)
| # | Pool | Time | In | Why sold | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0x9582c5938dd9ed2ae2668edc365d17ca491f36f3cbf4f4a3621bbb71bf92cea0 | 29 Oct 13:23 | $10 | stop | 0.47x (-53.3%) -$5.33 |
Full Test Manager report
# hw801 (#801 slow runner, ratio>=2.5, cap<300k, 12h, tp3/5/10): v4 native pools, first swap <=10min, buy at age>=5min cap 60-250k with >=3 sellers (#777) paper test (Test Manager 2) - 31 Oct 00:14 UTC
Spec: ledger #777 / analyst2 a2-777-rule.md. Analyst replay (assumed supply and ETH price) said 1.65-2.20x: treated as suspect. Here cap uses capx supply. Stop 0.5x, trail, 6 h, fee + 3% slip each side, pull (liq<=50% peak) and quiet = 0. Rows with src=replay are tape replay before registration; only src=fwd counts for the forward check.
- Native pools in tape: 485; with supply 408; waiting 304; open 0; skipped {'300s cap not 2x birth or outside 30-500k': 218, 'no supply': 11, '0cc hook (H3000) unsellable': 7, 'entry sell-sim BLOCK/tax (#4190)': 9}
- arm A (trail 100% tp3): on time n 91, mean 2.46x, <1x 12, tp 79, pull/quiet 8 | late (excluded) n 63, mean 2.04x, <1x 18, tp 45, pull/quiet 14
- arm B (trail 100% tp5): on time n 91, mean 3.42x, <1x 25, tp 66, pull/quiet 19 | late (excluded) n 63, mean 3.15x, <1x 21, tp 42, pull/quiet 16
- arm C (trail 100% tp10): on time n 91, mean 4.05x, <1x 52, tp 39, pull/quiet 44 | late (excluded) n 63, mean 4.64x, <1x 32, tp 31, pull/quiet 26