s777 variant: NSELL>=5
Testmgr · miss family · paper, $10 a trade, since 28 Oct · idea #797 · updated 29 Oct 09:04 Bangkok, refreshes every minute.
Not verified yet: treat these numbers as unproven
Waiting for: fwd n>=15
Still open:
- auditor 5-check
Paper run, no real money
Test Manager forward test on research-box. Kill rule: mean<1.0x with upper80<1.05 at fwd n>=20; decide by 1 Nov. Live only after 2 profitable days without bugs; only Ben switches.
Total P&L
-$57.43
Trades done
41
11 up, 30 down
Best trade
2.8x
Exit rule shown
A
stop .5 trail 40% tp3
Replay of past coins (not in the numbers above): 1510 trades, mean 1.06x, +$892.46 at $10. Backtest, no forward evidence.
P&L over time (US dollars, Bangkok time)
Each step is a trade with exit rule A, numbered in time order.
Other exit rules on the same coins
| Rule | Trades | Mean | 2x+ | 10x+ | Losers | P&L at $10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A stop .5 trail 40% tp3 | 41 | 0.86x | 8 | 0 | 30 | -$57.43 |
| B stop .5 trail 50% tp10 | 37 | 0.49x | 3 | 0 | 32 | -$187.81 |
Every trade (exit rule A)
| # | Pool | Time | In | Why sold | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | 0xc96fe7749f3b4f72fd9c4c37e2c874fcbe74e39ee044fad35a52d1c405613701 | 29 Oct 07:21 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 40 | 0xba8d58087638bad5337a11260853b7c7a8b96c7e15a2f4f9b937a25869e0ce81 | 29 Oct 07:14 | $10 | trail | 0.96x (-4.1%) -$0.41 |
| 39 | 0x927e2c261a9ecb8f48104560baa98271216639419a5d6b560bc3b4a513fa9978 | 29 Oct 04:55 | $10 | trail | 0.60x (-39.6%) -$3.96 |
| 38 | 0x63eda3085264338067cab2b8febca740bec79b4d29d50a5d8b4b6c36d9c4c144 | 29 Oct 04:46 | $10 | trail | 1.07x (+7.5%) +$0.75 |
| 37 | 0x5da3010e5597ecdbb26640bf7b73eeaee554f47cfe5005c5301a12696afbaf27 | 29 Oct 04:43 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 36 | 0xbe9883ba7a2bc0a8ff86cfaa4f4902d1f784d5e3a6b0123f1b74e555cd3b9af0 | 29 Oct 03:47 | $10 | quiet | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 35 | 0x97e2f465368117c2b57507ef84c38fccd737c252292cd2e796b351782f8ca39b | 29 Oct 03:06 | $10 | quiet | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 34 | 0x382c6eecc9c46daeae27256eee84a3608c2e8188f5ccc84298912f47ba159e41 | 29 Oct 02:46 | $10 | quiet | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 33 | 0xc4cc4867ed679881a05adc2de7198293262d89c3556b0bf6a14647bfd8c4dea6 | 29 Oct 02:25 | $10 | trail | 0.80x (-20.1%) -$2.01 |
| 32 | 0x528cc7cb7afe9caf9fd9149bf80440b345fe880a45ab9cdb687b984ed73f9101 | 29 Oct 02:23 | $10 | stop | 0.33x (-67.3%) -$6.73 |
| 31 | 0xe555d7a76c36ce60f5363419064c2473e5cc81c994be85f6105f6ecf6c5ba47f | 29 Oct 01:53 | $10 | quiet | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 30 | 0x8f12e3fbcb4293ef5315978446aab329789e786160a6e47d2cb08b8133ebc03a | 29 Oct 01:32 | $10 | quiet | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 29 | 0xa966e8b5b774f7b44f21a206e968cd5b3174b3d53cf18d31e0cb1111618f488b | 29 Oct 01:18 | $10 | trail | 0.76x (-23.9%) -$2.39 |
| 28 | 0x616d35debac2f83b46c85fc2feefee0b768ba195dad161afb6a6ae317908add9 | 29 Oct 00:58 | $10 | quiet | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 27 | 0x831d20292849f367f6771cb019eed225b67c79a3cebb3eb0c523c3c1c5e0255a | 29 Oct 00:24 | $10 | quiet | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 26 | 0xfb3975ba93ebb5c9728bd4834b0a1705e385e9677ae3eac538fde575689c3fea | 28 Oct 23:58 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 25 | 0xd1acdc3947b3d2e6de1977d287eca561a2e68f54305a75076388daa7fa052f3a | 28 Oct 23:25 | $10 | trail | 0.93x (-6.8%) -$0.68 |
| 24 | 0x89ac18b4066c79ebf4150310d25b5c399bf09dc643c204d4adfb9b20b9483fe0 | 28 Oct 22:14 | $10 | quiet | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 23 | 0x6d54845f28b202954666485c86b04559c6170f2393612c521d8c9e6a3dd580d3 | 28 Oct 22:09 | $10 | quiet | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 22 | 0x51cd3348b246508c5bbb0fe8fda9d359e977a9d12361d7235fc73d6abbb6eed0 | 28 Oct 21:45 | $10 | quiet | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 21 | 0xa5da18847e22e068fc14b379ecab1cd87d13d60b35697d0e20d87f9ba96853e4 | 28 Oct 21:27 | $10 | trail | 0.99x (-0.7%) -$0.07 |
| 20 | 0x24216b690870ec7db0c4be2c292d9eb8efe2732bd8311e6550e3ca27cb872d17 | 28 Oct 21:24 | $10 | quiet | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 19 | 0xfd4fd243ebbdf3a1dd3bc6ee06428c646c5508509a21a4c2784959f97188893c | 28 Oct 20:19 | $10 | trail | 0.80x (-19.7%) -$1.97 |
| 18 | 0xaf16f6c3dd45cd708efeab768811c6b7097259a24d0043b08a683253a08d4a0d | 28 Oct 20:17 | $10 | trail | 0.98x (-2.0%) -$0.20 |
| 17 | 0x47f82573b0283bdbb8669b575898eba2193ce7fa74bf063c98d505c9f07d131a | 28 Oct 19:30 | $10 | quiet | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 16 | 0x48639b964d4872b257794c33a4a35362ab7883366a7a07339435c4711b5b06b4 | 28 Oct 18:43 | $10 | quiet | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 15 | 0xb373793106a0d73845155ca8d010a22c56f8710d4e7e8089df10646dffdab570 | 28 Oct 18:40 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 14 | 0xfa20408db7520738fd58406495c21592eb61902264236dff6724959aec045987 | 28 Oct 18:28 | $10 | trail | 1.05x (+4.7%) +$0.47 |
| 13 | 0xb1b939e4a5e1b319ef2c266a0189ca92917e4b52646009fbc56db7e2f322e396 | 28 Oct 17:31 | $10 | quiet | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 12 | 0x6d95f92f493ba13f95e416dc2b1ea58f079550b980543d48f45a26b44ced0b50 | 28 Oct 16:57 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 11 | 0x897c2a6f88eb7744669b3219b9f36a9edd8dc982fef2134640281356d34efae5 | 28 Oct 16:23 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 10 | 0x31385869f6e2fa0b2edd94d56483297f12418e0f8a091ed296f691cfb5cc28ba | 28 Oct 15:21 | $10 | trail | 0.47x (-52.8%) -$5.28 |
| 9 | 0xbee4f622e7157e36468bfcda69e11eab65cb51efec3b0884ec537791a1e8900f | 28 Oct 15:19 | $10 | quiet | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 8 | 0x3148631bead9c65eb349b21e661ba3b7c27d5e5b1fbd5901b3e236d7dde0e085 | 28 Oct 15:11 | $10 | trail | 0.55x (-45.4%) -$4.54 |
| 7 | 0x3de69d56f2e7f100976bf05e86909574ef07e1854c196629ad4ea54f97b66fa8 | 28 Oct 14:53 | $10 | trail | 0.84x (-16.1%) -$1.61 |
| 6 | 0xe4e7d4489de4846fe06b703c2b9bf3d0a82185c70e8915b3351c3d190f5f7dbe | 28 Oct 14:20 | $10 | quiet | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 5 | 0x833ba6709354c98f5148be6c5503255a83cea70d235a9df05d59616149cece33 | 28 Oct 13:44 | $10 | stop | 0.46x (-53.9%) -$5.39 |
| 4 | 0x59553175e24a902c3b9730817b8ac3a344bf8ecdb4872007490942488a2ada59 | 28 Oct 12:49 | $10 | trail | 1.08x (+8.3%) +$0.83 |
| 3 | 0xe06daafb17da627f36dde09ce2e01a85f757ad51a9a329c8b2f8d1029eb7438e | 28 Oct 12:44 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 2 | 0xeea38a1fb38d75a78f3999eb7a05785cb2f0d192aab24fce1da17d24ad940785 | 28 Oct 11:17 | $10 | quiet | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 1 | 0xc3999ceb721802199c2ba8c110ec6e11fd2a08eaf3c18c95731bf9a2f715ad1f | 28 Oct 11:02 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
Full Test Manager report
# s777b: v4 native pools, first swap <=10min, buy at age>=5min cap 60-250k with >=3 sellers (#777) paper test (Test Manager 2) - 29 Oct 02:04 UTC
Spec: ledger #777 / analyst2 a2-777-rule.md. Analyst replay (assumed supply and ETH price) said 1.65-2.20x: treated as suspect. Here cap uses capx supply. Stop 0.5x, trail, 6 h, fee + 3% slip each side, pull (liq<=50% peak) and quiet = 0. Rows with src=replay are tape replay before registration; only src=fwd counts for the forward check.
- Native pools in tape: 3933; with supply 3382; waiting 2712; open 24; skipped {'sellers<3 at 1st in-band swap': 33, '0cc hook (H3000) unsellable': 350, 'no supply': 20, 'first swap >10min': 15, 'entry sell-sim BLOCK/tax (#4190)': 30}
- arm A (trail 40% tp3): on time n 488, mean 1.15x, <1x 278, tp 152, pull/quiet 198 | late (excluded) n 308, mean 1.05x, <1x 189, tp 88, pull/quiet 140
- arm B (trail 50% tp10): on time n 487, mean 0.86x, <1x 378, tp 20, pull/quiet 308 | late (excluded) n 305, mean 1.15x, <1x 239, tp 26, pull/quiet 200