s777 variant: cap 150-400k

Testmgr · miss family · paper, $10 a trade, since 28 Oct · idea #799 · updated 29 Oct 07:25 Bangkok, refreshes every minute.

Not verified yet: treat these numbers as unproven

Waiting for: fwd n>=15

Still open:

Paper run, no real money

Test Manager forward test on research-box. Kill rule: mean<1.0x with upper80<1.05 at fwd n>=20; decide by 1 Nov. Live only after 2 profitable days without bugs; only Ben switches.

Total P&L
+$11.24
Trades done
20
6 up, 14 down
Best trade
2.8x
Exit rule shown
A
stop .5 trail 40% tp3

Replay of past coins (not in the numbers above): 1234 trades, mean 0.85x, -$1823.03 at $10. Backtest, no forward evidence.

P&L over time (US dollars, Bangkok time)

Each step is a trade with exit rule A, numbered in time order.

$0$10$20$30trade 1 at 28 Oct 11:50 1.50x +$5.02#1trade 2 at 28 Oct 12:44 2.82x +$18.22#2trade 3 at 28 Oct 12:45 0.56x -$4.38#3trade 4 at 28 Oct 12:49 0.73x -$2.73#4trade 5 at 28 Oct 14:53 0.47x -$5.27#5trade 6 at 28 Oct 16:49 0.72x -$2.82#6trade 7 at 28 Oct 19:43 1.61x +$6.06#7trade 8 at 28 Oct 20:10 2.82x +$18.22#8trade 9 at 28 Oct 21:08 0.68x -$3.25#9trade 10 at 28 Oct 21:14 0.67x -$3.35#10trade 11 at 28 Oct 21:27 0.95x -$0.50#11trade 12 at 29 Oct 00:15 0.00x -$10.00#12trade 13 at 29 Oct 00:29 1.03x +$0.34#13trade 14 at 29 Oct 00:58 0.00x -$10.00#14trade 15 at 29 Oct 01:18 0.76x -$2.39#15trade 16 at 29 Oct 02:23 0.33x -$6.73#16trade 17 at 29 Oct 02:25 0.73x -$2.66#17trade 18 at 29 Oct 04:46 0.96x -$0.35#18trade 19 at 29 Oct 07:14 0.96x -$0.41#19trade 20 at 29 Oct 07:21 2.82x +$18.22#2011:4016:4021:3902:3907:39
Other exit rules on the same coins
RuleTradesMean2x+10x+LosersP&L at $10
A stop .5 trail 40% tp3201.06x3014+$11.24
B stop .5 trail 50% tp10180.55x1015-$80.34
Every trade (exit rule A)
#PoolTimeInWhy soldResult
200xc96fe7749f3b4f72fd9c4c37e2c874fcbe74e39ee044fad35a52d1c40561370129 Oct 07:21$10tp2.82x (+182.2%)
+$18.22
190xba8d58087638bad5337a11260853b7c7a8b96c7e15a2f4f9b937a25869e0ce8129 Oct 07:14$10trail0.96x (-4.1%)
-$0.41
180x63eda3085264338067cab2b8febca740bec79b4d29d50a5d8b4b6c36d9c4c14429 Oct 04:46$10trail0.96x (-3.5%)
-$0.35
170xc4cc4867ed679881a05adc2de7198293262d89c3556b0bf6a14647bfd8c4dea629 Oct 02:25$10trail0.73x (-26.6%)
-$2.66
160x528cc7cb7afe9caf9fd9149bf80440b345fe880a45ab9cdb687b984ed73f910129 Oct 02:23$10stop0.33x (-67.3%)
-$6.73
150xa966e8b5b774f7b44f21a206e968cd5b3174b3d53cf18d31e0cb1111618f488b29 Oct 01:18$10trail0.76x (-23.9%)
-$2.39
140x616d35debac2f83b46c85fc2feefee0b768ba195dad161afb6a6ae317908add929 Oct 00:58$10quiet0.00x (-100.0%)
-$10.00
130x3f2853c6a085d7325145abf7aee98b7eb204b7dcf65e4241c238440bebefe54e29 Oct 00:29$10trail1.03x (+3.4%)
+$0.34
120xfb3975ba93ebb5c9728bd4834b0a1705e385e9677ae3eac538fde575689c3fea29 Oct 00:15$10quiet0.00x (-100.0%)
-$10.00
110xa5da18847e22e068fc14b379ecab1cd87d13d60b35697d0e20d87f9ba96853e428 Oct 21:27$10trail0.95x (-5.0%)
-$0.50
100xfd4fd243ebbdf3a1dd3bc6ee06428c646c5508509a21a4c2784959f97188893c28 Oct 21:14$10trail0.67x (-33.5%)
-$3.35
90xaf16f6c3dd45cd708efeab768811c6b7097259a24d0043b08a683253a08d4a0d28 Oct 21:08$10trail0.68x (-32.5%)
-$3.25
80xb373793106a0d73845155ca8d010a22c56f8710d4e7e8089df10646dffdab57028 Oct 20:10$10tp2.82x (+182.2%)
+$18.22
70x6d95f92f493ba13f95e416dc2b1ea58f079550b980543d48f45a26b44ced0b5028 Oct 19:43$10time1.61x (+60.6%)
+$6.06
60x897c2a6f88eb7744669b3219b9f36a9edd8dc982fef2134640281356d34efae528 Oct 16:49$10trail0.72x (-28.2%)
-$2.82
50x3de69d56f2e7f100976bf05e86909574ef07e1854c196629ad4ea54f97b66fa828 Oct 14:53$10trail0.47x (-52.7%)
-$5.27
40x59553175e24a902c3b9730817b8ac3a344bf8ecdb4872007490942488a2ada5928 Oct 12:49$10trail0.73x (-27.3%)
-$2.73
30xaa8447bd02e6b4b165fb97f5a027925a85b5c1f0e06c8b3e0578a04dac66758028 Oct 12:45$10trail0.56x (-43.8%)
-$4.38
20xe06daafb17da627f36dde09ce2e01a85f757ad51a9a329c8b2f8d1029eb7438e28 Oct 12:44$10tp2.82x (+182.2%)
+$18.22
10xc3999ceb721802199c2ba8c110ec6e11fd2a08eaf3c18c95731bf9a2f715ad1f28 Oct 11:50$10trail1.50x (+50.2%)
+$5.02
Full Test Manager report
# s777d: v4 native pools, first swap <=10min, buy at age>=5min cap 60-250k with >=3 sellers (#777) paper test (Test Manager 2) - 29 Oct 00:25 UTC
Spec: ledger #777 / analyst2 a2-777-rule.md. Analyst replay (assumed supply and ETH price) said 1.65-2.20x: treated as suspect. Here cap uses capx supply. Stop 0.5x, trail, 6 h, fee + 3% slip each side, pull (liq<=50% peak) and quiet = 0. Rows with src=replay are tape replay before registration; only src=fwd counts for the forward check.
- Native pools in tape: 3915; with supply 3365; waiting 2875; open 26; skipped {'0cc hook (H3000) unsellable': 349, 'sellers<3 at 1st in-band swap': 8, 'no supply': 20, 'first swap >10min': 15, 'pulled before entry': 1, 'entry sell-sim BLOCK/tax (#4190)': 6}
- arm A (trail 40% tp3): on time n 368, mean 1.03x, <1x 234, tp 85, pull/quiet 117 | late (excluded) n 269, mean 0.94x, <1x 177, tp 59, pull/quiet 113
- arm B (trail 50% tp10): on time n 367, mean 0.68x, <1x 289, tp 6, pull/quiet 193 | late (excluded) n 268, mean 0.76x, <1x 213, tp 7, pull/quiet 163