thin819 v3 thin wakers (first cap<5k) entry +300s if cap 100k-1.5M, exit +30 min
v3 pools · hold to birth+1800s, 7% cost, pull=0, 20x ratio cap · paper, $10 a trade, since 30 Oct · idea #819 · updated 31 Oct 07:33 Bangkok, refreshes every minute.
Not verified yet: treat these numbers as unproven
Waiting for: needs forward n>=15 (now 0, built 30 Oct); decide by 3 Nov
Still open:
- Not audited yet
Paper run, no real money
Test Manager forward test on research-box. Kill rule: forward mean <1.05 at n>=20. Live only after 2 profitable days without bugs; only Ben switches.
Total P&L
+$58.66
Trades done
5
5 up, 0 down
Best trade
4.3x
Exit rule shown
A
hold 1800s
Replay of past coins (not in the numbers above): 105 trades, mean 1.53x, +$551.82 at $10. Backtest, no forward evidence.
P&L over time (US dollars, Bangkok time)
Each step is a trade with exit rule A, numbered in time order.
Every trade (exit rule A)
| # | Pool | Time | In | Why sold | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0x383e8360c6e15d39627d9b7fc3330f0c5ef1f14e | 31 Oct 06:21 | $10 | 1.42x (+41.8%) +$4.18 | |
| 4 | 0x0757883f57db0c7f8045c77dedbec22b5b9168e7 | 31 Oct 02:44 | $10 | 1.63x (+62.8%) +$6.28 | |
| 3 | 0x9463cff680dc69a681478ec73617f5f859fc74f7 | 31 Oct 00:01 | $10 | 1.22x (+22.4%) +$2.24 | |
| 2 | 0xf8bd79f4b53473ba40636c7ed9553ddfbe223044 | 30 Oct 18:00 | $10 | 2.30x (+129.9%) +$12.99 | |
| 1 | 0xd5723ee49b8f5ce317cd2d92fc8e658d43c9442e | 30 Oct 12:51 | $10 | 4.30x (+329.7%) +$32.97 |
Full Test Manager report
# thin819 (ledger #819) - 31 Oct 00:33 UTC
Rule: v3 first cap<5k, entry birth+306s if cap_300s 100k-1.5M. cost 7%, pull=0, 20x ratio cap.
- ALL exit600: n 110, mean 1.12x, median 1.02x, <1x 53, >=3x 8, pulls 15
- ALL exit1800: n 110, mean 1.55x, median 1.07x, <1x 53, >=3x 20, pulls 17 | uncapped mean 1.55x
- cap 100-250k exit600: n 25, mean 1.55x, median 1.41x, <1x 7, >=3x 3, pulls 2
- cap 100-250k exit1800: n 25, mean 2.41x, median 1.30x, <1x 11, >=3x 8, pulls 2 | uncapped mean 2.41x
- cap 250k-1M exit600: n 71, mean 1.05x, median 0.95x, <1x 36, >=3x 5, pulls 10
- cap 250k-1M exit1800: n 71, mean 1.36x, median 1.07x, <1x 34, >=3x 11, pulls 11 | uncapped mean 1.36x
- cap 1-1.5M exit600: n 13, mean 0.75x, median 0.90x, <1x 9, >=3x 0, pulls 3
- cap 1-1.5M exit1800: n 13, mean 1.12x, median 0.92x, <1x 7, >=3x 1, pulls 4 | uncapped mean 1.12x
- FORWARD exit600: n 5, mean 1.27x, median 1.26x, <1x 0, >=3x 0, pulls 0
- FORWARD exit1800: n 5, mean 2.17x, median 1.63x, <1x 0, >=3x 1, pulls 0 | uncapped mean 2.17x
- Skipped: {'cap band off': 1348, 'not thin': 3903, 'no swaps': 329, 'no entry swap': 1}