Made 30 Oct 07:41 Bangkok. Read only, no Claude in the loop. Only Ben switches live (D-030). Gate rule: 2 profitable days without bugs (D-031). Runner = Robinhood coin with ATH $1.0M+ (big: $5.0M+), from runtrack.
0 of 18 runners made us money (0%)
| step | runners | share |
|---|---|---|
| born (ATH $1M+) | 18 | 100% |
| seen by any bot | 17 | 94% |
| picked by any bot (paper or live) | 0 | 0% |
| made money (live or paper test) | 0 | 0% |
| item | USD |
|---|---|
| live P&L (fmmc5, real money) | $0.00 |
| paper P&L (fml2, not real) | $-33.18 |
| running cost per week (costs.json, estimate: Ben edits it) | $104.00 |
| real money result after costs | $-104.00 |
10x hit rate of each picker book; shadow books end in _h; dumb baseline = every coin round 5 scored: 73 of 2025 hit 10x (3.6%).
| picker | book | picks | closed | 10x hits | hit rate | vs baseline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| round5 | blend_top2_h | 31 | 7 | 7 | 100.0% | 28x |
| round5 | rule_fee001_first | 271 | 70 | 70 | 100.0% | 28x |
| round5 | v5_top1_h | 29 | 6 | 6 | 100.0% | 28x |
| round5 | v5_top2_h | 32 | 8 | 8 | 100.0% | 28x |
| round5 | base_top5_nodead_h | 77 | 19 | 17 | 89.5% | 25x |
| round5 | v5_top5_h | 65 | 17 | 15 | 88.2% | 25x |
| round5 | f5_20s_top2 | 16 | 8 | 7 | 87.5% | 24x |
| round5 | rule_r6_clean_up_2apps | 79 | 27 | 23 | 85.2% | 24x |
| round5 | base_top5_nodead | 65 | 20 | 16 | 80.0% | 22x |
| round5 | f5_20s_top5 | 99 | 30 | 24 | 80.0% | 22x |
| round5 | rule_smart2_clean | 239 | 38 | 30 | 78.9% | 22x |
| round5 | v5_top5 | 72 | 23 | 18 | 78.3% | 22x |
| round5 | id5_top1 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 70.0% | 19x |
| round5 | id5_top5 | 111 | 51 | 27 | 52.9% | 15x |
| round5 | id5_top2 | 43 | 24 | 12 | 50.0% | 14x |
| 60s | champion | 122 | 63 | 27 | 42.9% | 12x |
| round5 | rand_gated | 53 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 12x |
| round5 | rand_30s | 73 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 8x |
| round5 | ev_top5 | 37 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 6x |
Live 1: Price Predict mc5 (fmmc5): HOLD SIZE (0 of 2 days)
$50 a trade. 2 closed trades, total $-13.31, without the best trade $-7.94 (best $-5.37). Losses in a row now: 2 of 10.
| Bangkok day | closed trades | wins | P&L | bugs | counts toward 2 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | 0 | 0 | $0.00 | 1 | no |
| 2026-10-17 | 2 | 0 | $-13.31 | 0 | no |
Paper 2: AI picks (fml2): NOT YET (0 of 2 days)
$10 paper. 35 closed trades, total $-16.59, without the best trade $-56.11 (best $39.51). Losses in a row now: 3 of 10.
| Bangkok day | closed trades | wins | P&L | bugs | counts toward 2 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | 3 | 0 | $-12.91 | 0 | no |
| 2026-10-24 | 1 | 0 | $-0.17 | 0 | no |
| 2026-10-25 | 2 | 0 | $-2.08 | 0 | no |
| 2026-10-26 | 4 | 0 | $-4.94 | 0 | no |
| 2026-10-28 | 4 | 0 | $-0.77 | 0 | no |
| 2026-10-29 | 6 | 1 | $-1.45 | 0 | no |
| 2026-10-30 | 3 | 0 | $-10.86 | 0 | no |
Paper 1b: AI picks, no quiet exit (fml2v): WARNING: 18 LOSSES IN A ROW (info only, no loss stop since D-038)
$10 paper. 35 closed trades, total $-109.38, without the best trade $-109.96 (best $0.59). Losses in a row now: 18 of 10.
| Bangkok day | closed trades | wins | P&L | bugs | counts toward 2 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | 1 | 0 | $-1.43 | 0 | no |
| 2026-10-25 | 2 | 1 | $-1.21 | 0 | no |
| 2026-10-26 | 4 | 0 | $-6.84 | 0 | no |
| 2026-10-27 | 1 | 0 | $-1.05 | 0 | no |
| 2026-10-28 | 4 | 0 | $-3.38 | 0 | no |
| 2026-10-29 | 6 | 0 | $-12.41 | 0 | no |
| 2026-10-30 | 2 | 0 | $-7.83 | 0 | no |
Does picking beat taking everything the bot saw? Share of coins that became runners.
| bot | runners in its picks | runners in everything it saw | picking adds value? |
|---|---|---|---|
| fmmc5 (cap band rule) | 0 of 0 (-) | 31 of 612 (5%) | - |
| aipaper (AI score) | 1 of 104 (1%) | 22 of 2788 (1%) | yes |
| aipaper30 (AI score) | 0 of 0 (-) | 0 of 0 (-) | - |
| aipaper5 (AI score) | 0 of 0 (-) | 0 of 0 (-) | - |
| coin | ATH | venue | mc5 | aipaper | aipaper30 | aipaper5 | fml2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PONS (big) 0x78899583 | $221.5M | pp:v4/no hook/USDG | NOT SEEN not a v4 ETH pool fmmc5 watches (venue pp:v4/no hook/USDG) | MISSED score 0.33 below the line | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | - |
| 0x9d0d92 (big) 0x9d0d9267 | $76.6M | kit:other | MISSED cap $1.4M at 5 min, over $1M | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | - |
| 0xe09943 (big) 0xe09943cc | $12.0M | kit:other | MISSED cap $12.1M at 5 min, over $1M | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | - |
| 0xef6134 (big) 0xef613447 | $11.7M | kit:other | MISSED cap $188k at 5 min, under $250k | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | - |
| 0xe578fa (big) 0xe578fa5f | $11.3M | kit:other | MISSED cap $1.1M at 5 min, over $1M | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | - |
| RUMOR (big) 0x5a4f7b31 | $8.6M | pool_uniswap_v4 | NOT SEEN not a v4 ETH pool fmmc5 watches (venue pool_uniswap_v4) | MISSED score 0.14 below the line | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | - |
| 0x62e324 (big) 0x62e324b4 | $8.5M | kit:other | MISSED cap $118k at 5 min, under $250k | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | - |
| SHOGGOTH (big) 0x38fb3098 | $6.8M | bankr | NOT SEEN not a v4 ETH pool fmmc5 watches (venue bankr) | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | - |
| 0xb11147 (big) 0xb11147d4 | $5.1M | kit:other | MISSED cap $220k at 5 min, under $250k | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | - |
| PIZZA 0xd086f891 | $4.1M | pool_uniswap_v4 | NOT SEEN not a v4 ETH pool fmmc5 watches (venue pool_uniswap_v4) | MISSED score 0.06 below the line | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | - |
| 0x9cf791 0x9cf79182 | $3.2M | kit:other | MISSED in band but skip | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | - |
| 0x9b1a3e 0x9b1a3e0e | $2.6M | kit:other | MISSED cap $2.6M at 5 min, over $1M | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | - |
| FOREVER 0xacc8de33 | $2.2M | pool_uniswap_v4 | NOT SEEN not a v4 ETH pool fmmc5 watches (venue pool_uniswap_v4) | MISSED score 0.51 below the line | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | - |
| 0x7664c2 0x7664c2b8 | $1.5M | kit:other | MISSED cap $80k at 5 min, under $250k | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | - |
| ROBINHOOD 0xe04f5762 | $1.5M | pool_uniswap_v4 | NOT SEEN not a v4 ETH pool fmmc5 watches (venue pool_uniswap_v4) | MISSED score 0.63 below the line | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | - |
| 0x086a4c 0x086a4ce5 | $1.4M | kit:other | MISSED cap $90k at 5 min, under $250k | MISSED score 0.03 below the line | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | - |
| Refrigerator 0x84179c57 | $1.2M | pool_uniswap_v4 | NOT SEEN not a v4 ETH pool fmmc5 watches (venue pool_uniswap_v4) | MISSED score 0.53 below the line | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | - |
| 0xd68bc9 0xd68bc9e4 | $1.2M | kit:other | MISSED cap $1.2M at 5 min, over $1M | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | - |
| venue | runners | seen by no bot at all |
|---|---|---|
| kit:other | 24 | 1 |
| pool_uniswap_v4 | 20 | 8 |
| pp:v4/no hook/ETH | 3 | 0 |
| pp:v4/no hook/USDG | 3 | 0 |
| pp:v4/hook 0x48b8f6ad/WETH | 2 | 1 |
| pool_uniswap_v3 | 1 | 0 |
| bankr | 1 | 1 |
| pons_v2 | 1 | 1 |
| v4 no-hook NATIVE fee19000 thin | 1 | 1 |
| v3 WETH fee3000 | 1 | 0 |
| bot | coin | result | exit |
|---|
We bought the right coin, the exit sold it at a loss, and it still became a runner.
| bot | coin | cap at buy | our result | exit | coin ATH later |
|---|
| bot | coin | cap at buy | result | exit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| fml2 | 0x493d66fa | $6k | 0.98x | dead_60s |
| fml2 | 0x8d375e40 | $2k | 0.76x | dead_60s |
| fml2 | 0x93fa030e | $2k | 0.92x | dead_60s |
| fml2 | 0x2124ce06 | $5k | 0.80x | dead_60s |
| fml2 | 0x536b9476 | $2k | 0.90x | dead_60s |
| fml2 | 0x7aed8ba5 | $2k | 0.61x | dead_60s |
| fml2 | 0x2b00164d | $2k | 0.61x | dead_60s |
| fml2 | 0xfe63abf3 | $2k | 0.70x | dead_60s |
Data for analysts: misses.csv (every runner a bot did not pick, with the reason), history.jsonl (one line per night).